Turkish earthquake scientist Prof. Dr. Naci Görür said that 4 fault lines in Turkey have a high risk of producing earthquakes in the near future, adding that “not only I, but also international earthquake scientists expect earthquakes in these regions.”
Speaking in a Turkish television program, Prof. Görür said that the earthquakes in these fault lines could be as large as 7.4 magnitude.
Görür said, “These regions really keep me up at night.” He also said that these fault lines have accumulated stress and are likely to break. He said the following:
“This is Bingöl Karlıova, a city in eastern Turkey. The North Anatolian Fault comes here and converges here. This massive North Anatolian Fault is one of the most active faults in the world, 1,600 kilometers long. Most of the major earthquakes that have occurred in Turkey have been caused by this fault.
The section between Erzincan and Karlıova will break
This is the East Anatolian Fault, which starts from Karlıova and goes to Hatay, and produced the earthquakes on February 6th. Look at this section between Erzincan and Bingöl Karlıova. This is the fault that we call the Yedisu Fault. This fault has not produced an earthquake for a long time. It is accumulating stress. The most recent earthquake here was in 1784. An earthquake occurs here every 250 years. If we add 250 years to this year, we also reach today. Not only me, but also international earthquake scientists are expecting an earthquake here. This is written and drawn. The section between Erzincan and Karlıova will break. This is the place where the stress of both the 1982 and 1939 earthquakes in Erzincan has accumulated and has not yet broken.
There is a risk of an earthquake of at least 7.4 magnitude. This is one, and the second is that there is the Ovacık Fault here. The Ovacık Fault may also have accumulated stress from large earthquakes. Or let’s say that the stress level may have changed with the Erzincan earthquake in 1982. This is a slow fault. So it accumulates stress very slowly. It is a fault that will produce an earthquake of more than 7 magnitude in a few thousand years. We do not know the latest earthquake here. We don’t know when it will happen, but we have a question in our minds.
The third is the Nazimiye Fault
The third is the Nazimiye Fault. We do not know when the Nazimiye Fault will produce an earthquake. Let’s come here. This is the section between Karlıova and Bingöl. Again, this is the section we are very afraid of. The easternmost section of the East Anatolian Fault. This section may also have accumulated stress from the latest earthquakes. Now Tunceli is in the middle of these. Pülümür is at the bottom of this. As earth scientists, we have to warn our people, the state, and the local governments, as the children of this country.
“It will break and produce an earthquake”
I think about it when I go to bed at night. Any night, you wake up in the morning, there could be an earthquake here. Why is that? There is scientific evidence. As I said, this place has not broken because of the last earthquakes in 1982-1939. Stress accumulation means that the force that will break the rocks has accumulated here. When that force breaks the rocks, it will break and produce an earthquake here.”
Fault lines with earthquake risk
The fault lines with earthquake risk that Prof. Görür mentioned are as follows:
- Yedisu Fault (between Erzincan and Karlıova, Turkey)
- Ovacık Fault (between Erzincan and Ovacık, Turkey)
- Nazimiye Fault (between Nazimiye and Bingöl, Turkey)
- The section between Karlıova and Bingöl (between Erzincan, Bingöl, Tunceli, and Pülümür, Turkey)
Prof. Görür’s warnings are a serious concern for the people of Turkey. The four fault lines he mentioned are all located in highly populated areas, and an earthquake of 7.4 magnitude or higher could have devastating consequences. It is important for people in these areas to be aware of the risk and to take steps to prepare for an earthquake.